Food systems scenarios in an uncertain future

Drs. Robert Newell (PI) and Leslie King (collaborator) were awarded a SSHRC Partnership Engage grant to partner with the Community Connections (Revelstoke) Society in long-term food systems planning.

This research explores approaches for long-term food systems planning in ways that account for and respond to uncertainty in the face of global trends and external pressures. Partnering with the Community Connections (Revelstoke) Society (CCRS) and other stakeholders in Revelstoke, BC, the project involves researchers working with community stakeholders to identify a scenario that captures an equitable and resilient local food system, then to explore scenario alternatives that respond to external pressures and shocks, and finally to identify interventions needed to make progress toward the future scenarios. The aim of the research is to facilitate explorations in uncertainty by selecting and refining a 'desirable scenario' based on how socioeconomic, environmental, and political trends could influence and impact it. The project also aims to stimulate thinking among local government and stakeholders about the actions and interventions required to achieve the different scenarios. Accordingly, the objectives of this research are two-fold:

(1) To explore approaches and tools for engaging communities in local food systems planning in the face of uncertainty due to external pressures and exogenous shocks from complex large-scale issues.

(2) To experiment with ways to stimulate thinking on how to encourage communities to move toward implementation and engage in actions that orient them to particular food systems futures.

The research uses a community-engaged approach, and it employs systems thinking, scenario planning, and participatory modelling techniques. The project involves workshops that engage local government, non-government organizations, community organizations, and other stakeholders. In the workshops, participants identify a desirable food future, and how it may look at different points in time from now to 2100. Workshop participants explore the uncertainties around the scenario, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenario framework is applied to create two new scenarios that respond and adapt to systems effects of the environmental, socioeconomic, and political issues. Outcomes of this exercise include two new scenarios, with details on how these scenarios may look at different points in time from now to the future.

The participation of CCRS and local stakeholders is instrumental in this research. CCRS and workshop participants engage in workshop discussions and activities to ensure that the research and production of knowledge is grounded in the social, cultural, economic, and ecological challenges and realities of Revelstoke. In turn, the researchers facilitate the integration and syntheses of knowledge in scenario development and analytical exercises, ultimately providing Revelstoke stakeholders and community members with a comprehensive understanding of food systems issues and pluralistic pathways to achieving sustainable, resilient, and just food futures. Outcomes from the project include scholarly and practical knowledge on long-term planning, integrated food systems planning, and ways of stimulating thinking about action and implementation.